![]() Gupta-Jain said the RBI is faced with a tough choice amid rising inflation, widening current account deficit, a hawkish Fed and surging pandemic cases.Īccordingly, she sees the RBI turning off the liquidity tap and moving towards policy normalisation from April and raising the repo rates by 50 bps in the second half of FY23 provided that the economy regains its momentum. The only mitigating factors are negative output gap, stabilising global commodity prices, including oil, and easing supply chain bottlenecks. On the retail inflation, she said upside risks to inflation still exist and pencils it at 5 per cent for FY23. Gupta-Jain also flagged concerns on the still tepid credit growth saying a favourable combination of policy settings, lack of excesses and structural space for increased leverage should help boost the credit impulse, which it sees picking up to 10 per cent in FY23, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 2016-20 average and plunging to a six-decadal low of 5.3 per cent in FY19 and FY20. ![]() Ubs Account 9.1 drivers#She based the optimism on two counts: Given that the potential real GDP growth has already been stabilised at around 6 per cent now despite the pandemic and capex (capital expenditure), manufacturing and exports, and digitalisation should be the next key growth drivers beyond FY22.īut, she said that even though the country should remain one of the fastest-growing emerging markets (EMs) in FY23, the output gap may continue to be negative. However, going forward, she expects the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average at 8.2 per cent in FY23, up from their previous forecast of 7.7 per cent and a tad over the consensus estimate of 7.6 per cent before settling at the trend rate of six per cent in FY24. Access UBS Software, UBS Accounting Software, UBS Inventory Software, UBS Payroll System, UBS POS System, UBS BSM Software, Malaysia Accounting Software. "Given the surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on economic activities, especially a delayed recovery in contact-intensive services and consumption sectors in the ongoing quarter, we see the real GDP growth slowing to 9.1 per cent from our previous forecast of 9.5 per cent," Tanvee Gupta-Jain, chief economist at UBS Securities India, said on Wednesday. The maximum new caseload has come from Maharashtra, which is the largest state in terms of GDP share with 1,281 cases, followed by Rajasthan at 645, Delhi 546, Karnataka 479 and Kerala 350. Of the total 4,868 cases of the Omicron variant, 1,805 people have recovered or migrated so far. ![]() The number of active cases has increased to 955,319, the highest in 211 days, while the death toll has climbed to 484,655 with 442 fresh fatalities, showed the Union health ministry data. It takes the total tally to 3,60,70,510, including 4,868 cases of the Omicron variant. ![]()
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